Perspective on the Global Economy in 2023
- OECD reduced its global economic growth forecast from 3% to 2.9% for 2023, while keeping it unchanged at 2.7% for 2024.
- PMI data for November pointed out that the weak course of manufacturing industry activities in the USA and the Euro Area continues.
- Data flow indicating a cooling in the US economy and inflation indicators that were below expectations strengthened the expectations in the markets that the Fed may have terminated interest rate increases.
- Annual CPI inflation in the Euro Area was 2.4% in November, according to leading data, and reached its lowest value since July 2021.
- Although supply and demand indicators in China pointed to a recovery in economic activity, inflation data showed that deflation continued in the country.
- The lack of regional developments in the Middle East and recession expectations for the global economy caused oil prices to decline in November.
Perspective on Turkish Economy in 2023
- Turkish economy grew by 5.9% on an annual basis in the third quarter of 2023, according to the chained volume index. In this period, the contribution of private consumption expenditures to growth was at its lowest level in the last two years.
- In September, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 9.1%, its lowest level since December 2013.
- ISO Turkey manufacturing PMI decreased by 1.2 points on a monthly basis to 47.2 in November, continuing its course below the threshold value for the fifth month.
- In September, the current account account posted a surplus of 1.9 billion USD, with the support of the decline in the foreign trade deficit and the strong outlook in tourism revenues. Thus, the 12-month cumulative current account deficit decreased to 51.7 billion USD.
- While the central government budget had a deficit of 95.5 billion TL in October, the budget deficit was 608.1 billion TL in the January-October period.
- In November, CPI increased by 3.28% on a monthly basis, below market expectations. During this period, annual CPI inflation was 61.98%. PPI inflation was 2.81% and 42.25% on a monthly and annual basis, respectively.
- At its November meeting, the CBRT increased the interest rate above market expectations and raised the policy rate to 40%.
- BIST-100 index completed November with a 5.8% increase at 7,949 levels. Turkey’s 5-year CDS premium saw its lowest value since March 2021 with 331 basis points.
- S&P confirmed Turkey’s credit rating as “B” in its off-calendar assessment on November 30, and renewed its credit rating outlook from “stable” to “positive”.
References:
https://ekonomi.isbank.com.tr/contentmanagement/Documents/tr03_aylik/2023/DTEG_202312.pdf